June 24, 2020
Tracking COVID-19 as Cause of Death: Global Estimates of Relative Severity
By Philip Schellekens and Diego Sourrouille* May 2020. * World Bank Group. ABSTRACT: Despite the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic across countries, the global death toll remains highly concentrated in few high-income countries. Reported data suggests the developing world has been largely spared, yet a host of factors, not least demography, suggest that the observed discrepancy in the burden of mortality is likely significantly exaggerated. This paper tracks the severity implied by the reported data and relates it to pre-pandemic mortality patterns to get a feel for the discrepancies and inequalities. An indicator of “relative severity” is proposed to generate global comparisons across countries and over time. The methodology can be utilized to improve tracking systems and detect data anomalies that can then set the stage for further analysis. It should prove useful in getting a better grasp of the distribution and progression of the pandemic if or when the epicenters of the pandemic start shifting to the developing world.
World Population Growth
by Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina